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Characterizing the deep uncertainties surrounding coastal flood hazard projections: A case study for Norfolk, VA
Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator:The Pennsylvania State University
Publication_Date:2019
Title:
Characterizing the deep uncertainties surrounding coastal flood hazard projections: A case study for Norfolk, VA
Online_Linkage: http://www.datacommons.psu.edu
Description:
Abstract: 
Coastal planners and decision makers design risk management strategies based on hazard projections. However, projections can differ drastically. What causes this divergence and which projection(s) should a decision maker adopt to create plans and adaptation efforts for improving coastal resiliency? Using Norfolk, Virginia, as a case study, we start to address these questions by characterizing and quantifying the drivers of differences between published sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and how these differences can impact efforts to improve coastal resilience. We find that assumptions about the complex behavior of ice sheets are the primary drivers of flood hazard diversity. Adopting a single hazard projection neglects key uncertainties and can lead to overconfident projections and downwards biased hazard estimates. These results highlight key avenues to improve the usefulness of hazard projections to inform decision-making such as (i) representing complex ice sheet behavior, (ii) covering decision-relevant timescales beyond this century, (iii) resolving storm surges with a low chance of occurring (e.g., a 0.2% chance per year), (iv) considering that storm surge projections may deviate from the historical record, and (v) communicating the considerable deep uncertainty.
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Single_Date/Time:
Calendar_Date:2019
Currentness_Reference: 
publication date
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:ISO 19115 Topic Categories
Theme_Keyword:inlandWaters
Theme_Keyword:oceans
Access_Constraints:None.
Use_Constraints: 
The University excludes any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
The University makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance.
The University will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
The USER is granted permission to translate and add value to the FILES for the use of the FILES on its computer hardware; provided, however, that the USER annually notify the University of any customizing or value-adding work done.
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person:Kelsey Ruckert
Contact_Organization:Penn State
Contact_Position:Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM)
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing address
Address: 
320c EES Building
Address: 
Earth & Environmental Systems Institute
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:USA
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:klr324@psu.edu
Contact Instructions: 
Authors: Kelsey L. Ruckert (Penn State Earth and Environmental Systems Institute), Vivek Srikrishnan (Penn State Earth and Environmental Systems Institute), and Klaus Keller (Penn State Department of Geosciences)
Native_Data_Set_Environment:
Microsoft Windows 2000 Version 5.0 (Build 2195) Service Pack 4; ESRI ArcCatalog 8.3.0.800
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Distributor:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing and physical address
Address: 
115 Land and Water Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Voice_Telephone:(814) 865 - 8792
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu
Distribution_Liability: 
The USER shall indemnify, save harmless, and, if requested, defend those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data, their officers, agents, and employees from and against any suits, claims, or actions for injury, death, or property damage arising out of the use of or any defect in the FILES or any accompanying documentation. Those parties involved with the development and distribution excluded any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance. Those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons
Contact_Position:Metadata Coordinator
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing address
Address: 
115 Land and Water Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Voice_Telephone:814-865-8792
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu
Metadata_Standard_Name:FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version:FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata_Time_Convention:local time
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