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Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘The likelihood of recent warmth’ (Nature Scientific Reports, Mann et al. 2016)


Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator:The Pennsylvania State University
Publication_Date:2016
Title:
Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘The likelihood of recent warmth’ (Nature Scientific Reports, Mann et al. 2016)
Other_Citation_Details:
Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley, M., Miller, S.K., The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth, Scientific Reports, 6, 19831, 2016.
Online_Linkage: http://www.datacommons.psu.edu
Description:
Abstract:
2014 was nominally the warmest year on record for both the globe and northern hemisphere based on historical records spanning the past one and a half centuries. It was the latest in a recent run of record temperatures spanning the past decade and a half. Press accounts reported odds as low as one-in-650 million that the observed run of global temperature records would be expected to occur in the absence of human-caused global warming. Press reports notwithstanding, the question of how likely observed temperature records may have have been both with and without human influence is interesting in its own right. Here we attempt to address that question using a semi-empirical approach that combines the latest (CMIP5) climate model simulations with observations of global and hemispheric mean temperature. We find that individual record years and the observed runs of record-setting temperatures were extremely unlikely to have occurred in the absence of human-caused climate change, though not nearly as unlikely as press reports have suggested. These same record temperatures were, by contrast, quite likely to have occurred in the presence of anthropogenic climate forcing.
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Single_Date/Time:
Calendar_Date:2016
Currentness_Reference:
publication date
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:ISO 19115 Topic Categories
Theme_Keyword:climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme_Keyword:environment
Theme_Keyword:Climate
Theme_Keyword:climate variability
Theme_Keyword:climate extremes
Theme_Keyword:internal variability
Theme_Keyword:global warming
Access_Constraints:None.
Use_Constraints:
The University excludes any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
The University makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance.
The University will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
The USER is granted permission to translate and add value to the FILES for the use of the FILES on its computer hardware; provided, however, that the USER annually notify the University of any customizing or value-adding work done.
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person:Michael E. Mann
Contact_Organization:Penn State
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing and physical address
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:mem45@psu.edu
Contact Instructions:
Michael E. Mann (Penn State),
Stefan Rahmstorf (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research),
Byron A. Steinman (University of Minnesota Duluth),
Martin Tingley (Penn State), 
Sonya K. Miller (Penn State)
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Distribution_Information:
Distributor:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing and physical address
Address:
115 Land and Water Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Voice_Telephone:(814) 865 - 8792
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu
Distribution_Liability:
The USER shall indemnify, save harmless, and, if requested, defend those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data, their officers, agents, and employees from and against any suits, claims, or actions for injury, death, or property damage arising out of the use of or any defect in the FILES or any accompanying documentation. Those parties involved with the development and distribution excluded any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance. Those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons
Contact_Position:Metadata Coordinator
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing address
Address:
115 Land and Water Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Voice_Telephone:814-865-8792
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu
Metadata_Standard_Name:FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version:FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata_Time_Convention:local time
Metadata_Extensions:
Profile_Name:ESRI Metadata Profile
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