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Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2014)
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Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator:The Pennsylvania State University
Publication_Date:2014
Title:
Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2014)
Other_Citation_Details:
Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMO, Geophys. Res. Lett. (“Frontier” article), 41, 3211-3219, doi:10.1002/2014GL059233, 2014.
Online_Linkage: http://www.datacommons.psu.edu
Description:
Abstract: 
We estimate the low-frequency internal variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature using observed temperature variations, which include both forced and internal variability components, and several alternative model simulations of the (natural + anthropogenic) forced component alone. We then generate an ensemble of alternative historical temperature histories based on the statistics of the estimated internal variability. Using this ensemble, we show, first, that recent NH mean temperatures fall within the range of expected multidecadal variability. Using the synthetic temperature histories, we also show that certain procedures used in past studies to estimate internal variability, and in particular, an internal multidecadal oscillation termed the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” or “AMO”, fail to isolate the true internal variability when it is a priori known. Such procedures yield an AMO signal with an inflated amplitude and biased phase, attributing some of the recent NH mean temperature rise to the AMO. The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming. Claims of multidecadal “stadium wave” patterns of variation across multiple climate indices are also shown to likely be an artifact of this flawed procedure for isolating putative climate oscillations.
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Single_Date/Time:
Calendar_Date:2014
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publication date
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:ISO 19115 Topic Categories
Theme_Keyword:climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme_Keyword:environment
Theme_Keyword:climate variability
Theme_Keyword:Climate
Theme_Keyword:internal variability
Theme_Keyword:temperature
Theme_Keyword:Atlantic Multidecdal Oscillation
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The University excludes any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
The University makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance.
The University will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
The USER is granted permission to translate and add value to the FILES for the use of the FILES on its computer hardware; provided, however, that the USER annually notify the University of any customizing or value-adding work done.
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person:Michael E. Mann
Contact_Organization:Penn State
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing and physical address
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:mem45@psu.edu
Contact Instructions: 
Michael E. Mann (Penn State).Byron A. Steinman (Penn State),Sonya K. Miller (Penn State)
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Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing and physical address
Address: 
115 Land and Water Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Voice_Telephone:(814) 865 - 8792
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu
Distribution_Liability: 
The USER shall indemnify, save harmless, and, if requested, defend those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data, their officers, agents, and employees from and against any suits, claims, or actions for injury, death, or property damage arising out of the use of or any defect in the FILES or any accompanying documentation. Those parties involved with the development and distribution excluded any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance. Those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
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Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons
Contact_Position:Metadata Coordinator
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing address
Address: 
115 Land and Water Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Voice_Telephone:814-865-8792
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu
Metadata_Standard_Name:FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version:FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata_Time_Convention:local time
Metadata_Extensions:
Profile_Name:ESRI Metadata Profile
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