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Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘False Hope: The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a plateau, but a climate crisis still looms in the near future’ (Scientific American, Mann 2014)

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Identification_Information:

Citation:

Citation_Information:

Originator:The Pennsylvania State University

Publication_Date:2014

Title:

Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘False Hope: The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a plateau, but a climate crisis still looms in the near future’ (Scientific American, Mann 2014)

Other_Citation_Details:

Mann, M.E., False Hope: The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a plateau, but a climate crisis still looms in the near future, Scientific American, 310, 78-81, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0414-78

Online_Linkage: http://www.datacommons.psu.edu

Description:

Abstract:

“Temperatures have been flat for 15 years—nobody can properly explain it,” the Wall Street Journal says. “Global warming ‘pause’ may last for 20 more years, and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover,” the Daily Mail says. Such reassuring claims about climate abound in the popular media, but they are misleading at best. Global warming continues unabated, and it remains an urgent problem. The misunderstanding stems from data showing that during the past decade there was a slowing in the rate at which the earth’s average surface temperature had been increasing. The event is commonly referred to as “the pause,” but that is a misnomer: temperatures still rose, just not as fast as during the prior decade. The important question is, What does the short-term slowdown portend for how the world may warm in the future? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with answering such questions. In re - sponse to the data, the IPCC in its September 2013 report lowered one aspect of its prediction for future warming. Its forecasts, released every five to seven years, drive climate policy worldwide, so even the small change raised debate over how fast the planet is warming and how much time we have to stop it. The IPCC has not yet weighed in on the impacts of the warming or how to mitigate it, which it will do in reports that were due this March and April. Yet I have done some calculations that I think can answer those questions now: If the world keeps burning fossil fuels at the current rate, it will cross a threshold into environmental ruin by 2036. The “faux pause” could buy the planet a few extra years beyond that date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the crossover—but only a few.

Time_Period_of_Content:

Time_Period_Information:

Single_Date/Time:

Calendar_Date:2014

Currentness_Reference:

publication date

Keywords:

Theme:

Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:ISO 19115 Topic Categories

Theme_Keyword:climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere

Theme_Keyword:environment

Theme_Keyword:Climate

Theme_Keyword:climate variability

Theme_Keyword:energy balance model

Theme_Keyword:global warming

Access_Constraints:None.

Use_Constraints:

The University excludes any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
The University makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance.
The University will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
The USER is granted permission to translate and add value to the FILES for the use of the FILES on its computer hardware; provided, however, that the USER annually notify the University of any customizing or value-adding work done.

Point_of_Contact:

Contact_Information:

Contact_Person_Primary:

Contact_Person:Michael E. Mann

Contact_Organization:Penn State

Contact_Address:

Address_Type:mailing and physical address

City:University Park

State_or_Province:Pennsylvania

Postal_Code:16802

Country:United States

Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:mann@michaelmann.net

Distribution_Information:

Distributor:

Contact_Information:

Contact_Organization_Primary:

Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons

Contact_Address:

Address_Type:mailing and physical address

Address:

115 Land and Water Building

City:University Park

State_or_Province:Pennsylvania

Postal_Code:16802

Country:United States

Contact_Voice_Telephone:(814) 865 - 8792

Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu

Distribution_Liability:

The USER shall indemnify, save harmless, and, if requested, defend those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data, their officers, agents, and employees from and against any suits, claims, or actions for injury, death, or property damage arising out of the use of or any defect in the FILES or any accompanying documentation. Those parties involved with the development and distribution excluded any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance. Those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.

Metadata_Reference_Information:

Metadata_Contact:

Contact_Information:

Contact_Organization_Primary:

Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons

Contact_Position:Metadata Coordinator

Contact_Address:

Address_Type:mailing address

Address:

115 Land and Water Building

City:University Park

State_or_Province:Pennsylvania

Postal_Code:16802

Country:United States

Contact_Voice_Telephone:814-865-8792

Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu

Metadata_Standard_Name:FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata

Metadata_Standard_Version:FGDC-STD-001-1998

Metadata_Time_Convention:local time

Metadata_Extensions:

Profile_Name:ESRI Metadata Profile