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Numerical Simulation Output for Markowski (2020) Study of Supercell Intrinsic Predictability
Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator:The Pennsylvania State University
Publication_Date:2020
Title:
Numerical Simulation Output for Markowski (2020) Study of Supercell Intrinsic Predictability
Online_Linkage: http://www.datacommons.psu.edu
Description:
Abstract: 
This dataset contains the numerical simulation output created and analyzed by Markowski (2020) in his study of supercell intrinsic predictability.  A 25-member ensemble of relatively high-resolution (75-m horizontal grid spacing) numerical simulations of tornadic supercell storms was used to obtain insight on their intrinsic predictability.  Small random temperature perturbations present in the initial conditions trigger turbulence within the boundary layers. The turbulent boundary layers are given 12 h to evolve to a quasi-steady state before storms are initiated via the introduction of a warm bubble. The spatially averaged environments are identical within the ensemble; only the random number seed and/or warm bubble location is varied.  All of the simulated storms in the highly unstable, strongly sheared environment are long-lived supercells with intense updrafts and strong mesocyclones extending to the lowest model level.  Even the storms with the weakest near-surface rotation probably could be regarded as being weakly tornadic.  However, despite the identical mean environments, there is considerable divergence in the fine-scale details of the simulated storms, even within just 15 min of storm initiation.  The timing and intensity of the tornado-like vortices that develop are largely unpredictable, with the intensities ranging from EF0 to EF3.  The simulation differences only can be explained by differences in how the initial warm bubbles and/or storms interact with turbulent boundary-layer structures. The results suggest very limited intrinsic predictability with respect to predicting the formation time, duration, and intensity of tornadoes.  The dataset also includes all code used to perform the analyses and create the figures shown in the above-referenced journal publication.
Supplemental_Information: 
Paul Markowski, Professor of Meteorology, Department of Meteorology & Atmospheric Science, pmarkowski@psu.edu, 814-865-0428
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Single_Date/Time:
Calendar_Date:2020
Currentness_Reference: 
publication date
Spatial_Domain:
Bounding_Coordinates:
West_Bounding_Coordinate:-112.846
East_Bounding_Coordinate:-102.148
North_Bounding_Coordinate:45.898
South_Bounding_Coordinate:39.98
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:ISO 19115 Topic Categories
Theme_Keyword:climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme_Keyword:Mesoscale meteorology
Theme_Keyword:severe thunderstorms
Theme_Keyword:supercell thunderstorms
Theme_Keyword:tornadoes
Theme_Keyword:predictability
Theme_Keyword:numerical weather prediction
Access_Constraints:None.
Use_Constraints: 
The University excludes any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
The University makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance.
The University will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
The USER is granted permission to translate and add value to the FILES for the use of the FILES on its computer hardware; provided, however, that the USER annually notify the University of any customizing or value-adding work done.
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person:Paul Markowski
Contact_Organization:Penn State
Contact_Position:Professor of Meteorology, Department of Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing address
Address: 
520 Walker Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone:814-865-0428
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:pmarkowski@psu.edu
Contact Instructions: 
Markowski, P.M., 2020: What is the intrinsic predictability of tornadic supercell thunderstorms?  Monthly Weather Review, 148, in press.
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Distribution_Information:
Distributor:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing and physical address
Address: 
115 Land and Water Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Voice_Telephone:(814) 865 - 8792
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu
Distribution_Liability: 
The USER shall indemnify, save harmless, and, if requested, defend those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data, their officers, agents, and employees from and against any suits, claims, or actions for injury, death, or property damage arising out of the use of or any defect in the FILES or any accompanying documentation. Those parties involved with the development and distribution excluded any and all implied warranties, including warranties or merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and makes no warranty or representation, either express or implied, with respect to the FILES or accompanying documentation, including its quality, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The FILES and documentation are provided "as is" and the USER assumes the entire risk as to its quality and performance. Those parties involved with the development and distribution of this data will not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the FILES or any accompanying documentation.
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date:2020
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:Penn State Data Commons
Contact_Position:Metadata Coordinator
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:mailing address
Address: 
115 Land and Water Building
City:University Park
State_or_Province:Pennsylvania
Postal_Code:16802
Country:United States
Contact_Voice_Telephone:814-865-8792
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:datacommons@psu.edu
Metadata_Standard_Name:FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version:FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata_Time_Convention:local time
Metadata_Extensions:
Online_Linkage: http://www.esri.com/metadata/esriprof80.html
Profile_Name:ESRI Metadata Profile
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