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TitleSupplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016)
Date2016
AbstractThe temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed.
MetadataClick here for full metadata
Data DOIdoi:10.26208/3e4y-0h19

Researchers
Mann, M. E.
Penn State Department of Meteorology
Steinman, B. A.
Penn State Department of Meteorology
Miller, S. K.
Penn State Department of Meteorology
Frankcombe, L. H.
University of New South Wales
England, M. H.
University of New South Wales
Cheung, A. H.
University of Arizona

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References
Mann, M. E., B. A. Steinman, S. K. Miller, L. M. Frankcombe, M. H. England, and A. H. Cheung (2016), Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods, Geophysical Research Letters,43, 3459-3467, doi:10.1002/2016GL068159.